Four Steps to Rational Decision-Making

Ordinary people have few opportunities to make decisions in life and work, and it is also difficult to practice and improve their decision-making skills. Most people's decisions rely on intuition, while rational decisions depend on processes. The book "Decisive" proposes a four-step process for rational decision-making — to increase the probability of making the best decision, we need to 1. broaden options, 2. test assumptions with facts, 3. step outside ourselves to see ourselves, and 4. prepare for wrong decisions.

1. Broaden Options

People mistakenly think that making a choice is as simple as answering multiple-choice questions on an exam, selecting one from three or five options. However, the world is vast, and options are not limited to just a few. For example, an advertising design company may develop multiple design proposals simultaneously and combine useful elements into the final design outcome after each round of feedback. This not only increases work efficiency but also saves time costs in decision-making. Additionally, one can refer to the base rates of others' choices in similar situations. Sam Walton, the founder of Walmart, closely monitored competitors throughout his career to adjust decisions in a timely manner. As decision-makers, we should find the best solutions by creating more options and referencing others' choices.

2. Test Assumptions with Facts

If practice is the only criterion for testing truth, then conducting experiments before making final decisions can relatively accurately estimate whether an idea will work. Many companies have evolved from hiring employees solely through interviews to requiring them to go through short trial periods, precisely to avoid the limitations of interviews and increase decision accuracy. A friend of mine tried staying overnight in a house before buying it and discovered that he could hear the train's horn, thus avoiding a significant mistake at a low cost.

3. Step Outside Ourselves to See Ourselves

When decision-makers become too immersed in their own viewpoints, they often overlook external perspectives. Therefore, to assess the potential outcomes of a decision, one should investigate the objective circumstances underlying the decision. Consider evaluating options from a broader temporal and spatial perspective, such as Andy Grove pretending to be the new CEO entering through the front door and cutting the memory chip business; Kai-Fu Lee hypothesizing that tomorrow's headlines will report on his two choices — one being emotional but unjust, the other just but unfeeling, and then choosing to be just as a leader; Jeff Bezos imagining himself at 80 looking back, using the "regret minimization framework."

4. Prepare for Wrong Decisions

When considering the outcomes of decisions, you should contemplate both the best and worst-case scenarios to understand your position. If the situation approaches the worst outcome, you can respond in a timely manner. Additionally, you can establish signals that make you aware of your actions, thereby weakening the inertia of behavior and correcting decisions promptly. Notably, to increase the speed of decision-making, Bezos believes that decisions are inherently unequal and should never be treated equally — reversible decisions should use lightweight decision-making processes.