The Expertise Cliff: Why AI Coding Agents Fail in Mature Codebases
A 2025 controlled trial gave experienced developers access to AI coding tools and measured whether they got faster. The developers predicted a 24% speedup. After completing the study, they reported feeling roughly 20% faster. Objective measurement showed they were actually 19% slower.
This isn't a story about AI hype. It's a story about tacit knowledge — the undocumented "why" that lives inside every mature codebase and cannot be recovered by reading the code alone. AI agents are remarkably productive in greenfield systems precisely because there is little tacit knowledge to violate. They degrade in mature codebases for exactly the same reason.
